Macon, Ga

This is what the “anti” project people are citing as their support: http://www.macon-bibb.com/FHR/FHR_Traffic-EA-Sholl_20100210.pdf

Thanks for your help.

Timothy M. Nelson, CPA
Office of Congressman Jim Marshall
Phone: 202-225-6531 - Fax: 202-225-3013
Email: tim.nelson@mail.house.gov

This covers your requested GDOT response to certain local citizens’ criticisms of project development, particularly traffic projections, for proposed improvement to Forest Hill Road in Macon.  This response is based on considerable GDOT review.

The “Forest Hill Corridor” consists of three separate proposed projects that GDOT has programmed as PI 351130 - a proposed three-lane road from Northside Drive to Wimbish Road, PI 351135 - a bridge culvert over Savage Creek, and PI 350520 - a proposed four-lane roadway from Wimbish Road to Vineville /Forsyth Road/US 41.  All three of these projects were included in one environmental assessment (“Environmental Document”) which was approved by FHWA in June 2004.  By a state-local agreement, Bibb County is responsible for undertaking project development/preliminary engineering, design and right-of-way acquisition.   Bibb County hired Moreland Altobelli  Associates to oversee the project management for the Forest Hill Corridor and Moreland contracted Stantec Consulting Services to do the plan development (right of way and construction plans) and various other elements of design.  Since the project is being funded with federal funds, GDOT is responsible for ensuring that Bibb County’s work complies with all applicable federal (and state) requirements.

Concerning the principal criticism – traffic projections – projections were developed by Moreland Altobelli based on 2025 design year traffic  from the Macon Area Transportation Study travel demand model.  These numbers were in turn developed using estimates from GDOT’s 2000 annual publication of “Traffic Counts Macon-Bibb County”.  Due to local concerns, additional “current” counts were undertaken within the project limits in December 2001.  These traffic counts were used in the approved Environmental Document.

The traffic volumes were  counted again in 2004 to address concerns within the community and have been reevaluated twice in 2006 and once in 2008.  These evaluations were performed as part of the reevaluation of the original Environmental Document as the project was revised in the project development process.  With each environmental reevaluation, GDOT has reviewed Moreland’s traffic projections and found them to be acceptable, and in response to Congressman Marshall’s current inquiry about local concerns regarding the projections, we again reviewed the projections and found them to be acceptable.

In responding to the congressman’s inquiry, the department again reviewed the traffic projections developed by Moreland Altobelli for the county (as contained in the Final Environmental Assessment/Finding of No Significant Impact, page 3) and found the projections acceptable.  Review of the GDOT traffic counts at Overlook Drive, north of Wimbish and Newport Road were used in this review.  The growth factor used in the final environmental report is 2.0% per year which was consistent with what the trend was showing several years ago.  However, even using a more conservative growth factor of 1.8 %, the results are still within one to two thousand vehicles per day of the original projections.  These numbers are well within the acceptable range.  Projections are as follows:

A key issue is that for the past couple of years there has generally been a decline in traffic volumes due to increased gasoline prices and the reduced economic activity.  We believe that when the economy recovers actual traffic volumes will be in line with the projections.  We are already seeing an upward trend for 2010.

As the project continues to progress through the plan development process, GDOT expects to again be involved with yet another reevaluation of the Environmental Document (including the traffic projections) and with safety concerns and the statement of Need and Purpose for the proposed project.  We believe Bibb County, with GDOT’s support, has responded to a consensus of local community concerns in modifying the project’s design.

Concerning the other 2 items raised by (some) local interests – accident analysis and logical termini – GDOT staff supports the current consultant analysis and decisions.

GDOT in general supports the county’s proposed final design for both Forrest Hill Road roadway projects.  Past modifications to design have triggered required reevaluations of the environmental review.  Additional substantive changes in basic design concept and right-of-way limits would do the same, adding to time and expense.

This is what you wrote.

Nothing in this we wouldn’t say publicly but I request that you share with the county first to get their review and “approval.”  GDOT is a “third party” here, the local-feds go-between since fed $ are being used, but this is a county project.  We don’t want to get crossways with our “county partner.”

Understood. Thanks.

Any luck/progress on determining what my office can release?

Thanks!

We are fine with Mr. Marshall sharing about our reevaluation of the methodology of the traffic projections, our conclusion that it was valid and our expectation that the future  “design year” traffic projections will likely occur, preferably sharing with the project sponsor first.  This may not have great effect on the local opponents.

I am awaiting (promised by today) Bibb Co.-wide traffic (miles of travel) that shows the overall trend in area traffic in recent years compared to the 2000-2005 timeframe.  We will see if that reinforces the argument that slower-than-expected growth (compared to when projections done in early 2000s) on this local road is just part of the larger trend.  Of course there are always unique factors on any given street.

- CAUTION Macon -

Forest Hill Road